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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-15 22:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 152050 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-15 22:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152050 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 67.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 67.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 67.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Fred Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-15 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 20:42:08 GMT
Tropical Storm Fred Graphics
2021-08-15 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 20:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 21:23:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-15 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley just after 60 h. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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