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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-15 16:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151457 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 Grace remains a disorganized system, with only slight evidence of curved bands of deep convection on satellite imagery. WSR-88D radar data from San Juan show broad rotation of the precipitation echoes, but no definite center. The advisory intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB. We are waiting for additional observations in the system from an upcoming NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission into Grace in a few hours. Grace is in an environment of moderate shear and reasonably moist mid-level environmental air. Therefore some strengthening is expected before the system reaches Hispaniola tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Weakening is likely due to the expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and some restrengthening could occur if the center emerges over water near the Windward Passage. Grace is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength while moving near the northern coast of Cuba. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast in 2-5 days. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 285/14 kt. A well-defined mid-level high pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next several days. The global models are in reasonable agreement on a track near/over the Greater Antilles, including Cuba, during the next several days and over the central Gulf of Mexico in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast has been changed little from the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over northwestern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.2N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR N. COAST OF CUBA 72H 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fred Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-15 16:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 14:55:17 GMT
Tropical Storm Fred Graphics
2021-08-15 16:54:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 14:54:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 15:22:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-15 16:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical Storm Fred a couple of hours ago. The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process, and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about 40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time. Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.1N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-08-15 16:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 151452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 34 6 33(39) 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) APALACHICOLA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 17 33(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 38(42) 19(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 13(13) 36(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 20(20) 13(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 6( 6) 31(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 51(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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