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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 969 FONT12 KNHC 160240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-16 01:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 152350 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Grace, located about 100 miles south-southeast of the Dominican Republic. Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located northeast of Bermuda have continued to become better organized during the past few hours. If this trend continues, advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-16 01:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 23:49:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 21:30:17 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 27.1, -85.7 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.1, -68.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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