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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 the center of Elsa was located near 21.5, -81.2 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 21
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida. The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for the Cuban province of Camaguey. The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 81.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) , and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. THE STORM SURGE WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 80.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 81.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-05 13:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 11:49:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 09:22:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-05 13:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA NEARING LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 the center of Elsa was located near 21.4, -80.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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