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Tropical Storm Elsa Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-07-05 18:08:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 16:08:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-07-05 18:08:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 16:08:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-05 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051459 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. A center dropsonde from the plane measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since yesterday. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm continues to have some vertical alignment issues. Satellite imagery continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western edge of the main cloud mass. Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion estimate of 310/12 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance. The GFS model track lies a little east of the latest NHC track. Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-05 16:57:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 14:57:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-07-05 16:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 051456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 3 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KEY WEST FL 34 11 45(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) KEY WEST FL 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 1 19(20) 17(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 1 7( 8) 47(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 33(36) 22(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 38(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 43 9(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) HAVANA 50 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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