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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-05-10 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres remains a sheared tropical storm with a small ball of deep convection displaced just east of the partially exposed low-level center. All three scatterometer passes missed Andres. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on consensus subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective intensity estimates of 37 kt and 35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast of reasoning. The latest NHC track model guidance continues to show Andres moving slowly northwestward around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge while gradually weakening and becoming more vertically shallow. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next few days, which is expected to gradually nudge Andres west-northwestward on Tuesday and westward on Wednesday. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models, and the HCCA and GFEX consensus track models. Despite the ragged looking cloud pattern depicted in infrared satellite imagery, night-viz and passive microwave satellite data indicate that the low-level circulation has actually improved a little since the previous advisory. However, the combination of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable low- to mid-level air from the west and northwest is expected to induce gradual weakening later today. Additional weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Andres moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, with the cyclone expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just and update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-05-10 10:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 110W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-10 10:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon May 10 the center of Andres was located near 14.7, -109.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 5
2021-05-10 10:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 ...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 109.1W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.1 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday, followed by a westward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin later today, with Andres expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-05-10 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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