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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-08-23 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231434 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 34.6W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 34.6W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 36.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 39.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.8N 42.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.8N 44.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.2N 48.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.7N 52.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-23 11:15:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:42:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 09:08:13 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-23 10:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON STRENGTHENS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 23 the center of GASTON was located near 13.2, -32.4 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 3
2016-08-23 10:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 ...GASTON STRENGTHENS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 32.4W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 32.4 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Gaston is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-23 10:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230841 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized since the previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region. In addition, a 0556Z GPM microwave overpass indicated that a 15-20-nmi-diameter, closed low-level eye feature had developed. The initial intensity as been increased to 45 kt based on a consensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T2.9/43 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Gaston is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone. After that time, a gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast as Gaston moves into a break in the subtropical ridge. The models are in excellent agreement on this track scenario and are closely packed through day 3, with a large spread in the model tracks occurring after that time due to differences in the timing of when Gaston will make the poleward turn through the break in the ridge. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies a little to the left of the consensus model TVCN. The aforementioned eye feature, in conjunction with low shear conditions, well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow, SSTs near 28 deg C, and mid-level humidity values near 70 percent, generally would support a period of rapid intensification for the next 24 hours or so. However, the current forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory and shows strengthening at a more typical rate of 20 kt/24h for the next 36 hours due to a narrow band of dry air that appears to have penetrated into the inner core, which will take some time to mix out. After that time, the intensity is leveled off due to the cyclone moving through a band of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, which should disrupt both the convective and upper-level outflow patterns. The initial intensity is near the IVCN intensity consensus model through 24 hours, and then a little above that and near the SHIPS model. However, the new intensity forecast lies well below the GFS model output, which is forecasting Gaston to become a major hurricane around 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.2N 32.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 13.9N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.2N 37.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.8N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 18.5N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 22.6N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 29.4N 53.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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