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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics

2015-05-08 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 02:32:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 02:31:43 GMT

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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)

2015-05-08 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu May 7 the center of ANA was located near 31.5, -77.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 1

2015-05-08 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 77.6W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM) FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ANA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Subtropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2015-05-08 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 080232 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 4(16) 1(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 4(15) 2(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) 3(23) 3(26) X(26) WILMINGTON NC 34 17 8(25) 4(29) 4(33) 3(36) 2(38) 1(39) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 4(19) 3(22) X(22) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 27 11(38) 5(43) 4(47) 5(52) 1(53) 1(54) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 21 13(34) 5(39) 4(43) 3(46) 2(48) X(48) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) SAVANNAH GA 34 7 6(13) 4(17) 3(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 1

2015-05-08 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080231 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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