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Tropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-09 14:02:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 12:02:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 09:03:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-09 13:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE COAST... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 32.6, -77.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 6A
2015-05-09 13:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091159 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 800 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...ANA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 77.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 77.8 West. Ana is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today as Ana continues to approach the coastline, and then a turn to the north and northeast is expected near and after the time of landfall. On the forecast track, the center will be very near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts. A weakening trend is expected as Ana moves over cooler waters close to the coastline. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin
Tropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-09 12:00:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 08:42:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 09:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-05-09 10:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090851 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Satellite and NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that Ana has likely made the transition to a tropical cyclone based on the rapid decay of a previously persistent band of outer convection, recent development of inner-core convection within 30-40 nmi of the center, and weak anticyclonic outflow. Between 0500-0700 UTC, average Doppler velocities of 58-60 kt with isolated peak values of 63 kt were noted between 8,000-10,000 ft and within 30-40 dBZ echoes, which would correspond to about 53-54 kt surface winds. However, since that time, that outer band has weakened considerably, so the initial intensity will remain at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate using a 12-hour motion is 340/03 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The global and regional models are in very good agreement that Tropical Storm Ana will move slowly toward the north-northwest or northwest for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north and northeast ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. By 72 hours, Ana is expected to become extratropical and be absorbed by a much larger extratropical low pressure system by 96 hours. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. The center and inner-core region of Ana currently lie along the axis of warmest Gulf Stream water of about 25C. Although inner-core convection has been developing during the past few hours, it is occurring in a region where the last recon flight only found winds of 30-40 kt at the surface and around 45 kt at flight-level. As a result, there could be some fluctuations in Ana's intensity in the near term this morning. By 12-24 hours, the cyclone's slow forward speed will take it over much cooler shelf waters. The combination of SSTs around 20C-22C and continued entrainment of mid-level dry air should induce at least slow weakening until landfall occurs. Although inland at 36 and 48 hours, the intensity has been held up slightly in anticipation of a band of stronger winds lying just offshore. The official intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 32.4N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 32.8N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 34.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0600Z 39.0N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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