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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-05-08 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080856 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Subtropical Storm Ana has remained convectively challenged overnight with only a small cluster of thunderstorms noted revolving through the southern semicircle, and only shallow isolated convection having recently developed in the inner-core region. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt based on previous recon data and the lack of any significant change in the overall convective pattern since that flight. The initial motion continues to be a slow drift to the northwest or north-northwest at only 1-2 kt. Ana is embedded in a blocking pattern that is expected to persist for the next 3 days or so until a strong mid-tropospheric low/trough currently located over the western U.S. moves into the central and southern Plains and nudges Ana northward and eventually northeastward by early next week. During the next 48 hours, Ana is expected to move toward the southeastern U.S. at a very slow pace. The global and regional models are in remarkably good agreement on this weak steering pattern persisting through the weekend so, the official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. Water vapor imagery indicates that a tight mid-/upper-level low has finally become juxtaposed with the surface low, and the two have remained nearly stationary over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. However, intrusions of dry air into the inner core have been noted in satellite imagery and upper-air data during the past several hours, which have likely been the main reason for the lack of deep convection developing near the center. But with the lows now vertically stacked and expected to remain over SSTs of at least 25C for the next 24 hours, some slight strengthening is expected. Ana could also transition to a tropical storm during that time. By 48 hours and beyond, however, Ana's slow movement will take the cyclone over colder shelf waters of around 20C-22C, and weakening is expected due to the air in the inner core becoming more stable. Most of the global models now show Ana remaining a distinct entity through the forecast period and accompanied by winds near gale force. As a result, the forecast calls for Ana to remain an extratropical low on Days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.6N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 31.9N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 32.2N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 32.8N 78.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 34.1N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 37.7N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 43.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-08 10:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 08:44:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 08:41:44 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-08 10:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri May 8 the center of ANA was located near 31.6, -77.8 with movement NNW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 2
2015-05-08 10:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 77.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 1 MPH (2 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ANA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Subtropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-05-08 10:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 080841 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0900 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 1(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 4(16) X(16) RALEIGH NC 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 6(16) 4(20) 1(21) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 5(18) X(18) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 7(18) 3(21) 2(23) 3(26) 3(29) X(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 21 10(31) 5(36) 4(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 6(11) 3(14) 3(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 32 13(45) 5(50) 4(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 26 15(41) 5(46) 4(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) SAVANNAH GA 34 8 7(15) 4(19) 3(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) MAYPORT NS 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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