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Tropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2015-05-09 10:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 090843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0900 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 9(18) 4(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 28 18(46) 8(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 37 21(58) 5(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 11 11(22) 4(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)

2015-05-09 10:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ANA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 32.4, -77.6 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 6

2015-05-09 10:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090842 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...ANA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 77.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 77.6 West. Ana is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and then back to the north at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Ana has made the transition to a tropical storm, little additional strengthening is forecast through today. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin by tonight or Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the Frying Pan Shoals NOAA buoy measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 6

2015-05-09 10:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 090840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0900 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 77.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 77.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.8N 77.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.3N 78.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 39.0N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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