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Tropical Storm DANIELLE Public Advisory Number 4
2016-06-20 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 201432 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 ...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within portions of the warning area later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm DANIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-06-20 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 201432 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TUXPAN MX 34 72 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) TUXPAN MX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm DANIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-06-20 16:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 201431 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DANIELLE Graphics
2016-06-20 13:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 11:40:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 09:03:37 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DANIELLE (AT4/AL042016)
2016-06-20 13:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... ...DANIELLE SPREADING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 the center of DANIELLE was located near 20.6, -96.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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