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Remnants of DANIELLE Public Advisory Number 7

2016-06-21 10:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 ...DANIELLE DISSIPATES OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 99.3W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Danielle were located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 99.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the southwest is expected today, which should bring Danielle's remnants farther inland over south-central and southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Danielle's remnants are expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in higher terrain over the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. Storm total accumulations are expeced to be 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Danielle. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Remnants of DANIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-06-21 10:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210831 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Surface data over east-central Mexico indicate that Danielle no longer has a well-defined low-level circulation. Satellite imagery also shows that deep convection, primarily associated with the cyclone's mid-level center, has also vanished overnight. Therefore Danielle is declared dissipated, and this is the last advisory. Global models show the remnants of Danielle quickly moving west- southwestward or southwestward across south-central and southwestern Mexico today to the south of a strong mid-level ridge of high pressure centered over the southwestern United States. The remnants could emerge in the eastern Pacific waters to the southwest of Mexico on Wednesday before losing their identity. Danielle's remnants should continue to produce heavy rains over portions of south-central and southwestern Mexico today, especially around the time of peak diurnal heating. These rains could cause localized flash flooding and mud slides across the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.6N 99.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Remnants of DANIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-06-21 10:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 21 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 210831 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 0900 UTC TUE JUN 21 2016 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF DANIELLE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS ...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Remnants of DANIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-06-21 10:30:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 21 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210830 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 0900 UTC TUE JUN 21 2016 WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 99.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 99.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DANIELLE. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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