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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 12

2019-07-13 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130840 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 91.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 130SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 91.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.8N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.9N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 105SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.3N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Barry Graphics

2019-07-13 07:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 05:47:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 05:35:33 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)

2019-07-13 07:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BARRY INCHING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST AND EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Barry was located near 28.7, -91.1 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 11A

2019-07-13 07:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130534 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...BARRY INCHING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST AND EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 91.1W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 91.1 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the northwest should begin soon, followed by a turn toward the north tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the south-central Louisiana coast later today. After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast later today. Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A storm surge of 2.7 feet was recently reported at a National Ocean Service tide gauge at New Canal Station. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western portions of the Tennessee Valley. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late today across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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