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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-14 04:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 02:47:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-14 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 02:42:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 03:24:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-07-14 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 930 WTNT42 KNHC 140241 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry continues to move farther inland over Louisiana. Although the winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. An automated station near Vermilion Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt. Barry will continue to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours. Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next day or so. After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models. It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 31.0N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-07-14 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 140240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 48 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-14 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Barry was located near 31.0, -93.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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