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Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 150832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-15 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:35:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:35:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite the system's poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected. However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 38.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-15 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 the center of Kyle was located near 38.3, -70.0 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kyle Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM KYLE MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 70.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.0 West. Kyle is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster east-northeastward or eastward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Kyle is forecast to become post-tropical by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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