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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-22 19:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 17:36:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 15:32:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-22 16:57:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 14:57:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 15:32:05 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-22 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 the center of Marco was located near 20.9, -85.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-22 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 221454 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) 2(26) X(26) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 45(61) 7(68) X(68) X(68) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 25(68) 1(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 2(35) X(35) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 4(30) X(30) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25(34) 3(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) X(30) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 7(44) X(44) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) X(27) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) X(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 10(32) X(32) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 51 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 2(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-22 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...MARCO STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 85.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Yucatan coast south of Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba * Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Interests along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of Marco. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.3 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A gradual turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected to begin Sunday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, Marco's center will move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by this evening. Marco will then move across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and approach the central and northwestern Gulf coast on Monday and Tuesday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are also still possible today within the warning area along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible, across the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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