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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-22 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Reconnaissance data, geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, and radar data from Cuba all indicate that Marco is strengthening quickly this morning. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 69 kt, and there were several SFMR measurements of 50-55 kt to the northeast of the center. These data support raising Marco's initial intensity to 55 kt, and the central pressure based on dropsonde data has fallen to 992 mb. The crew on the plane reported the formation of a partial eyewall, which agrees with what we've seen on recent microwave and radar images. The track forecast has been complicated by the fact that the plane has fixed Marco's center to the east of the previous forecast track, and that makes the current motion north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. The subtropical ridge currently located over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to build westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days, and this expanding ridge is expected to push Marco northwestward and then eventually westward while the cyclone moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This general thinking has not changed, but the adjusted initial position ended up shifting the track guidance to the north and east on this cycle. In response, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and northward during the first 3 days and is generally between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Marco has finally tapped into the favorable conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone's overall small size and small radius of maximum winds makes it susceptible to quick changes in intensity. The tropical storm is just beginning to move into a higher zone of shear to its north, but conditions should remain conducive enough for Marco to intensity to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. After that time, southwesterly shear is expected to increase over 20 kt by day 2 and then over 30 kt by day 3, and those conditions, along with the cyclone's small size, should cause weakening as Marco gets closer to the central and northwestern Gulf coast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased during the first 2 days and lies above the HCCA/Florida State Superensemble solutions but below the SHIPS/LGEM scenarios. The intensity forecast comes back in line with the previous forecast by day 3 during the expected weakening phase, and Marco is ultimately expected to dissipate over Texas by the end of the forecast period. The updated track forecast suggests that watches could be required for a portion of the central Gulf Coast later today. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, and tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and in extreme western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash flooding. 2. Marco is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane Sunday and approach the central Gulf Coast on Monday. There is an increasing risk of impacts from storm surge, winds, and heavy rainfall from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Marco, as storm surge, tropical storm, and/or hurricane watches could be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-22 16:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA * CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARCO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-22 13:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 11:47:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 09:31:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-22 13:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MARCO CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 the center of Marco was located near 20.2, -85.2 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-08-22 13:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MARCO CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 85.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Marco's center moved just to the west of NOAA buoy 42056, which recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Far western Cuba: 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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