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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-08-23 04:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 230244 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 4(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 35(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 41(52) 7(59) X(59) X(59) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 37(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 9( 9) 71(80) 4(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 2( 2) 51(53) 6(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 24(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 45(54) 8(62) X(62) X(62) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 36(39) 13(52) X(52) X(52) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 35(39) 11(50) X(50) X(50) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) X(29) X(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 17(40) X(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 16(41) X(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 29(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-08-23 04:43:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230243 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 86.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 86.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 87.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 88.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.6N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.9N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)

2020-08-23 01:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARCO ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 the center of Marco was located near 22.3, -86.0 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 10A

2020-08-23 01:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222347 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...MARCO ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 86.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 86.0 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is expected to continue moving toward the north-northwest across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is forecast to reach the northern Gulf coast on Monday. After moving inland, Marco is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest and west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday, moving across southern Louisiana and east Texas. Maximum sustained winds based on preliminary data from the reconnaissance aircraft are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday. Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Weakening is forecast to occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter plane was 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Grand Isle LA to the AL/FL Border including Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Grand Isle LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area in Cuba through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Far western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches. Central U.S. Gulf Coast: 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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