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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 16

2020-08-24 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 986 WTNT34 KNHC 240856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 88.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border have been discontinued. All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.2 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through Tuesday night. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this afternoon in portions of the warning area. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2020-08-24 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 035 FONT14 KNHC 240856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 1 9(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 13 37(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BURAS LA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 46 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 890W 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 26(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 23(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-08-24 10:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALL STORM SURGE WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)

2020-08-24 07:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...A WEAKER MARCO CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 27.2, -87.9 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 15A

2020-08-24 07:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240549 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...A WEAKER MARCO CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 87.9W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans * Cameron to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 87.9 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later this morning. Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions, primarily in gusts, are still possible within the hurricane warning area by midday, with tropical storm conditions likely by midday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by the afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late today. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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