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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 241756 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 6 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BURAS LA 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 044 WTNT24 KNHC 241754 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST LATER TODAY FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 88.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-24 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Strong southwesterly shear is taking its toll on Marco, with the edge of the nearest deep convection now displaced 50 n mi northeast of the exposed circulation center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the system this morning measured 45-kt surface winds with the onboard SFMR instrument in that convection, but winds of only 20 to 30 kt were measured between this thunderstorm activity and the cyclone's center. Sampling by the aircraft has also revealed that winds of tropical storm force are likely no longer occurring in any portion of the circulation except in that convection. Based on the SFMR data, the initial intensity is initialized at 45 kt. The shear is not forecast to abate in the foreseeable future, and the simulated satellite imagery in the GFS and ECMWF suggests that Marco will degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast is near the various consensus aids, which shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression late tonight. Based on the updated intensity forecast, tropical storm conditions are no longer expected to be produced by Marco over the central portions of the Louisiana coast, and the Tropical Storm Warnings for those locations have been discontinued. Marco has slowed down and has moved a little to the right of the forecast track over the past few hours, with an initial motion of NNW/7 kt. The track guidance for the entire forecast period has shifted back northward, and is just south of where it was this time yesterday. The official forecast track was adjusted eastward in the near term to accommodate the recent right-of-track bias. After 12 h, the track forecast lies between the previous one and most of the consensus track guidance. On this track, Marco is expected to move inland tonight, and remain inland when the system turns west-northwestward in the low-level flow by Tuesday morning. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 28.5N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.2N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-24 16:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 28.5, -88.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 16:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 88.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 88.5 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur by Tuesday, and this motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Marco is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and degenerate to a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this afternoon in portions of the warning area. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today into tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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