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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Forecast Advisory Number 51
2021-10-05 10:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050832 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 400SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 780SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 39.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 480SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 190SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...400NE 280SE 270SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...330NE 280SE 390SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 39.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SAM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Graphics
2021-09-25 22:45:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Sep 2021 20:45:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Sep 2021 20:45:20 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-25 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 252044 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa has continued to consist of just a swirl of low-level clouds since last night. Although a convective band persists a couple hundred miles northeast of the low center, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Strong west-southwesterly wind shear should prevent any regeneration of convection near the center. All of the global models show the remnant low degenerating into an open trough by Sunday morning. Teresa has been moving eastward or 090/4 kt during the past 12 hours. A turn to the northeast is expected within the next couple of hours as the cyclone moves in the southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The northeastward motion should continue until the low dissipates Sunday morning. Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 34.4N 64.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0600Z 35.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Latto
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa (AT4/AL192021)
2021-09-25 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TERESA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 25 the center of Teresa was located near 34.4, -64.3 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-25 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 252041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...TERESA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 64.3W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate Sunday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Teresa. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen/Latto
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