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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-23 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...ROSE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 41.6W ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 41.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a northeast or east motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Rose. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-09-23 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230832 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-18 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 221 WTNT45 KNHC 182034 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system's triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on continuity. The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is moving a little faster--now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days 3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period. One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that forecast. If the system's forecast track continues to shift southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario could become a stronger possibility. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.1N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-18 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 182034 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 5 23(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HALIFAX NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette (AT5/AL152021)
2021-09-18 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ODETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 18 the center of Odette was located near 39.1, -65.1 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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