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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Graphics
2021-09-11 10:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Sep 2021 08:34:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Sep 2021 09:28:56 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-11 10:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110834 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that. Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA aid. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 the center of Olaf was located near 24.4, -114.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Public Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 722 WTPZ35 KNHC 110833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and the remnant low could open up into a trough at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Residual swells from Olaf along the west coast of Baja California Sur will continue to subside today but could still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 721 FOPZ15 KNHC 110833 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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