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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Graphics
2019-09-29 01:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 23:44:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:31:41 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-29 01:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 15.1, -100.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2019-09-29 01:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282344 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 100.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 100.3 West. The system has been meandering during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Graphics
2019-09-28 22:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:31:41 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-28 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282041 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is no evidence of a well-defined center. Satellite animation continue to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing center. Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast. However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in weakening. The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However, a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact, this is the solution of this morning's GFS. Regardless of development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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