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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 31.8, -67.9 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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at5al102019
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Public Advisory Number 32
2019-09-25 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 32
2019-09-25 10:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250852 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Graphics
2019-09-23 16:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:50:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:50:18 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-23 16:48:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231448 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario's quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory. The remnant low will move slowly generally northward or north-northwestward for the next day or so as it slowly spins down. It will likely open up into a trough near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 25.0N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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