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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-08-10 19:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101751 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 64.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Squalls with winds to tropical-storm force are occuring over portions of the northern Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-10 16:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:52:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:52:38 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-10 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 101450 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PONCE PR 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-10 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 10 the center of Six was located near 16.3, -63.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-10 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 63.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique and Guadeloupe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. However, the aircraft did not find a well-defined closed circulation. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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