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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-10 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100850 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 The disturbance moved through the southern Leeward Islands a few hours ago. Based on surface observations from the islands, the system still does not have a well-defined circulation. Although the satellite appearance shows some increase in organization, the surface data suggest no significant strengthening has occurred thus far. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later this morning and should provide an updated intensity estimate, and also determine whether the system has become a tropical cyclone. The disturbance continues moving west-northwestward, or about 295/15 kt. The flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge should maintain the west-northwestward track for the next 72 hours or so, with some slowing of forward speed by midweek. Beyond that time, a turn toward the northwest with further deceleration is likely while the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus tracks. Users are reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively. Dynamical conditions appear to be conducive for intensification during the next 24 hours or so, with low vertical shear and pronounced upper-level outflow over the system. The main hindrance for strengthening today and tonight appears to be some dry mid-tropospheric air in the environment, as shown by the global models. Since the projected track takes the disturbance or cyclone over the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola, some weakening and disruption of the circulation is likely in 36 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in westerly shear which could also inhibit strengthening. The official intensity forecast closely follows the NOAA corrected consensus forecast technique, HCCA. There is significant uncertainty in 4-5 day intensity forecasts, however. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.7N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-10 10:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 437 FONT11 KNHC 100849 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PONCE PR 34 X 25(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 45(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) VIEQUES PR 34 3 28(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT CROIX 34 15 21(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-10 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 10 the center of Six was located near 15.7, -62.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-10 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-10 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100849 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS... MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 62.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 62.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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