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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-10 04:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 60.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for northern Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-10 04:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 100249 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X 12(12) 20(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PONCE PR 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 11(11) 38(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 10(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) VIEQUES PR 34 X 39(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) VIEQUES PR 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 25(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT CROIX 34 1 44(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT CROIX 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST EUSTATIUS 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 7 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-10 04:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100249 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 60.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-10 01:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 23:31:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 22:55:49 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-08-10 01:30:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092330 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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