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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-08-09 22:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 092058 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) VIEQUES PR 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT CROIX 34 X 22(22) 17(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 9 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AVES 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MARTINIQUE 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)

2021-08-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 9 the center of Six was located near 14.2, -59.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1

2021-08-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092057 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-08-09 22:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092056 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 59.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN

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