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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-07-10 16:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 101438 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 16(26) 6(32) 1(33) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 11(24) 1(25) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 7(29) 1(30) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 11(53) 11(64) 1(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 3(24) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 11(34) 3(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 36(54) 29(83) 1(84) 1(85) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 2(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 22(45) 4(49) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 15(53) 2(55) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 35(48) 7(55) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 28(59) 5(64) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 3(25) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 33(36) 23(59) 4(63) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 51(69) 8(77) 1(78) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 10(42) 1(43) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 12(46) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 38(53) 9(62) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 36(64) 6(70) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 5(33) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 22(77) 3(80) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 23(41) 4(45) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) 8(59) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 7(58) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 36(58) 6(64) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 23(58) 2(60) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 5(41) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 2(33) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 14(44) 1(45) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 36(41) 25(66) 2(68) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 2(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 14(31) 2(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 1(20) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-10 16:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 the center of Two was located near 28.5, -86.4 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 1
2019-07-10 16:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 86.4W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-07-10 16:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101435 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Graphics
2019-07-08 16:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2019 14:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2019 15:23:52 GMT
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