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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Public Advisory Number 14
2018-11-06 03:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The system is expected to turn toward the west or west- southwest at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Xavier is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening and should subside on Tuesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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xavier
Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-11-06 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060237 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Graphics
2018-10-31 21:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 20:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 21:22:18 GMT
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oscar
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-10-31 21:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312034 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65 kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far northeastern Atlantic. The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 31 the center of Oscar was located near 39.3, -49.6 with movement NNE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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at1al162018
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