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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1

2017-08-06 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 062035 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 82.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 82.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT...TROPICAL CYCLONE 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 93.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.2N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 82.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Graphics

2017-08-05 22:42:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2017 20:42:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2017 21:23:47 GMT

Tags: graphics cyclone posttropical

 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2017-08-05 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052038 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number speed wind cyclone

 

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)

2017-08-05 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 the center of Eleven-E was located near 20.3, -111.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tags: summary cyclone elevene posttropical

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 6

2017-08-05 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 111.7W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 111.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The cyclone is forecast to continue on a north-northwest or northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed until dissipation occurs tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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