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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 1
2017-08-27 22:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-23 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 20:37:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 21:30:00 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-08-23 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232033 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Kenneth's organized deep convection has been gone for over 12 hours now. Satellite images also suggest it is losing its tropical character, with some possible frontal structures developing near and northeast of the center. Thus, it no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone, and this is the final advisory. The wind speed is held at 35 kt owing to the tight low-level circulation seen on visible imagery. The post-tropical cyclone should gradually spin down over cold waters and generally move north-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, when the cyclone is likely to be very weak and shallow, a turn toward the northwest is expected following the low-level flow. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 25.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 24/0600Z 26.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 28.1N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 28.7N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 31.2N 139.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-08-23 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232032 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 30N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 30N 140W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-23 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH BECOMES POST-TROPICAL, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Kenneth was located near 25.4, -135.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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