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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-06-30 22:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 302050 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-06-30 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302050 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 43.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 43.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 43.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)

2021-06-19 07:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Three was located near 29.1, -91.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 6A

2021-06-19 07:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 91.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving erratically toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or subtropical storm through this morning while the center is over or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening this afternoon as it moves farther inland. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on available surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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