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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190243 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 11(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 34 13 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 10(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 63 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MORGAN CITY LA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics

2021-06-19 01:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 23:40:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 21:22:36 GMT

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)

2021-06-19 01:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 28.3, -91.1 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 5A

2021-06-19 01:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 182339 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 91.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward or east-northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is forecast after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is slowly becoming better defined, and the system still is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm before landfall. Regardless of its status, little change in strength is expected through landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after the system crosses the coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. An oil rig south of the southeastern coast of Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central to northern Georgia, far western North Carolina and western South Carolina, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast within the warning area, and these winds will continue into Saturday. TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two tonight across coastal Louisiana. A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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