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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-18 22:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182033 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A few hours ago, an ASCAT-A pass indicated that maximum winds were about 40 kt well east of the ill-defined center of circulation, and the initial wind speed was increased to that value at the intermediate advisory at 18Z. Recent surface observations just offshore of southeastern Louisiana have been reporting maximum winds between 30 and 40 kt. Based on a combination of these data, and since the structure of the system has not changed much during the past few hours, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Although the disturbance has wind speeds of tropical storm intensity, it has not been named a tropical storm yet since its center is ill defined and broad as evident in the Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations. Regardless of its status, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are spreading across portions of the northern Gulf coast, and these conditions will spread inland through tonight. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is moving northward at about 14 kt, and a general north to north-northeast motion is expected through landfall, which is likely to occur overnight or early Saturday morning. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. There is some opportunity for a little strengthening during the next 6 to 12 hours before the system makes landfall. However, significant intensification is not expected due to the cyclone's broad and asymmetric structure, and ongoing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. After landfall, weakening is forecast, and dissipation is still predicted to occur by 72 hours. However, it should be noted that the ECMWF and UKMET models hold onto the vortex for a while longer. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding tonight and through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions have begun along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 27.9N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 29.5N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1800Z 31.4N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 32.8N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z 33.8N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0600Z 34.7N 81.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-18 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 27.9, -91.2 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 5
2021-06-18 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 182032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 91.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 91.2 West. The system is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward or east-northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is forecast after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and the system still is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm before landfall. Regardless of its status, little change in strength is expected through landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after the system crosses the coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central to northern Georgia, far western North Carolina and western South Carolina, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast within the warning area, and these winds will continue into Saturday. TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two tonight across coastal Louisiana. A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-06-18 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 182032 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 6( 7) 19(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 5 14(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) PENSACOLA FL 34 6 15(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 20 33(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MOBILE AL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 63 13(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GULFPORT MS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 81 6(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) STENNIS MS 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 4 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 87 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 32 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MORGAN CITY LA 34 44 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) LAFAYETTE LA 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-06-18 22:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 182032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 91.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 91.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.5N 90.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.4N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.8N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.8N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.7N 81.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 91.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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