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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL (AT2/AL122016)

2016-09-25 16:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25 the center of KARL was located near 39.9, -47.9 with movement NE at 49 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tags: summary karl cyclone at2al122016

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Graphics

2016-09-25 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 14:32:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 14:32:35 GMT

Tags: graphics karl cyclone posttropical

 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast Advisory Number 45

2016-09-25 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 251432 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 47.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 360SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 47.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 270SE 150SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 47.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KARL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Graphics

2016-09-25 05:12:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 02:41:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 03:06:11 GMT

Tags: graphics lisa cyclone posttropical

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Forecast Discussion Number 22

2016-09-25 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250240 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 No deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between 1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of convection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to meet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical cyclone. Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have been supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now moved farther to the west of that feature. In the absence of any other synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep convection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available tonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Without any convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure system centered near the Azores. The global models are in good agreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next day or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in 12-24 hours. A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the approaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates entirely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 25.8N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1200Z 27.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 29.3N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 31.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky

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