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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-06-19 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190832 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 The cloud pattern associated with the disturbance hasn't changed much overall, with a fairly compact cluster of deep convection near the estimated center location. The Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains at 35 kt, and this value will be used for the advisory intensity. The system has well-defined upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle and vertical shear is forecast by the dynamical guidance to remain low for the next day or so. Therefore some intensification is forecast and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone later today. After the system moves into the Caribbean, it should encounter an increasingly hostile environment of strong vertical shear associated with an upper-level trough over the west-central Caribbean. The global models are in good agreement on the system dissipating over the Central Caribbean, and the official intensity forecast is slightly below the model consensus at 48-72 h in deference to the global model predictions. The initial motion continues to be around 280/20 kt. The track forecast philosophy is basically unchanged from the previous advisory package. A well-defined ridge to the north of the disturbance should continue to steer the system westward to west-northwestward at a fast pace. By 48-72 hours, a slightly more westward track is likely while the weakening system moves more with the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus, TVCN. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Observations from the aircraft should determine whether a well-defined center exists, i.e. whether the disturbance has become a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 8.4N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1800Z 9.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/0600Z 10.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 11.5N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 12.4N 67.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 13.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022017)
2017-06-19 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Jun 19 the center of Two was located near 8.4, -54.5 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 3
2017-06-19 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.4N 54.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ESE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Trinidad * Tobago * Grenada A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 54.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands tonight and Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and additional development is likely during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly northwest through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach portions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-06-19 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 190832 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022017 0900 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X 12(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 36(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 38(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-06-19 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190831 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022017 0900 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TRINIDAD * TOBAGO * GRENADA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 54.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 54.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 9.3N 57.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.4N 61.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.5N 64.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.4N 67.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 74.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.4N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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