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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 45A
2016-10-09 13:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 74.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 74.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A coastal marine observing site near Hatteras, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h). A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina, and a wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport near Manteo, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. Hurricane-force wind gusts should continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding across the region. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-10-09 13:03:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 11:03:48 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2016-10-09 11:11:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 09:11:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-09 11:10:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 08:51:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 09:06:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 45
2016-10-09 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090855 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 Satellite and radar imagery indicate that Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, with the closest deep convection now located more than 150 nmi north and northeast of the exposed low-level center. Despite this change in structure, surface observations across eastern North Carolina and an earlier ASCAT pass indicate that strong winds persist northwest through southwest of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission completed earlier this morning also indicated that hurricane-force winds were occuring southwest of the center, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. Surface observations indicate that a cold front should overtake Matthew's center shortly, resulting in extratropical transition. The global and regional models forecast Matthew to slowly weaken over the next 48 hours, and that trend has been followed in the official intensity forecast. In the 48-72 hour time period, Matthew's circulation is expected to dissipate within the frontal system. A combination of satellite and radar imagery, aircraft data, and coastal surface observations indicate that Matthew is moving 065/12 kt. Matthew is now fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, and this deep-layer steering pattern is expected to move the cyclone east-northeastward and away from the coast of North Carolina today. An eastward motion is expected by tonight and should continue until Matthew dissipates in 48 hours or so. The new NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous track and lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS solutions. Recent observations and the forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires maintaining the Hurricane Watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. 2. Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 34.9N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 09/1800Z 35.2N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/0600Z 35.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 35.9N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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