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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-17 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 172032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Graphics
2021-06-16 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 14:48:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 14:48:45 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-16 16:48:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161448 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes, and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Despite the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of 25 kt. Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days. Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt). The bulk of the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward motion later today and then maintain a steady west to west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level trade winds. The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south of the previous forecast. This is the last advisory on Carlos. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 8.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-06-16 16:47:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161447 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-16 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 the center of Carlos was located near 8.6, -135.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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