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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six (AT1/AL262020)

2020-10-04 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Twenty-Six was located near 16.7, -76.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary potential tropical cyclone

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 1

2020-10-04 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La Habana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-10-04 22:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 042055 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 6(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 12(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20(35) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 26(45) 15(60) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) 20(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 13(30) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 16(27) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 15(41) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) 2(53) X(53) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 1(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 20(44) X(44) X(44) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 14(64) X(64) X(64) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 23(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KINGSTON 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 18(33) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-10-04 22:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 042055 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CUBA PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LA HABANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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