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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 290239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 10(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-06-29 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 290238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-29 01:59:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 23:59:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 21:28:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-29 01:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Enrique was located near 20.9, -107.3 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-06-29 01:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 282358 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 600 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 107.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the coast of southwest Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will continue to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Enrique could still be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over the southeast portion of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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