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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-29 07:38:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jun 2021 05:38:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jun 2021 03:28:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-29 04:41:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jun 2021 02:41:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jun 2021 03:28:28 GMT
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enrique
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection associated with Enrique has continued to wane this evening, with the cloud tops warming and the center located just to the northwest of the remaining convective activity. The subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease along with the UW/CIMSS objective T-numbers. A blend of these and an earlier SATCON estimate yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt for this advisory. Although the center of Enrique is located over SSTs of around 28C, the storm has been entraining a drier and more stable air mass located just to its west, which has led to the loss of organization. Bursts of deep convection will likely continue during the next day or so while the storm moves northwestward near a sharp SST gradient. However, steady weakening is anticipated during Enrique's approach to the southern portion of the Baja peninsula. Land interaction and decreasing SSTs should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days, and dissipate within 72 hours. Enrique is moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of the storm should steer Enrique northwestward over the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted back to the east this cycle and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction, but it lies a little to the west of the latest multi-model consensus aids. The guidance has again trended faster and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The rainfall over the mainland of Mexico continue to pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 21.1N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-29 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Enrique was located near 21.1, -107.4 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 290239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 107.4W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible through Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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