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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-29 13:44:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY-ORGANIZED ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... As of 6:00 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 the center of Enrique was located near 22.0, -107.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 17A
2021-06-29 13:44:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 291144 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 600 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 107.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. Combined with the rain that has already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides. As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible through Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-29 10:47:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Jun 2021 08:47:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Jun 2021 08:47:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-06-29 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290846 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due to the entrainment of drier and more stable air. Upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a contributing factor. Based on data from a couple of earlier scatterometer overpasses, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt. Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for the current intensity of the storm. Since the thermodynamic environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening is forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. It should be noted that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon. Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly uncertain. The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion estimates quite uncertain. Based heavily on continuity, the initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5 kt. The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja California Peninsula. Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area, and not upgrade it to a warning at this time. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-29 10:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 the center of Enrique was located near 21.6, -107.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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