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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-16 16:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 19.9, -135.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 17
2015-07-16 16:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 ...ENRIQUE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 135.5W ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 135.5 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Enrique is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression today, and become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-07-16 16:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-16 10:46:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 08:46:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 08:43:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-07-16 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 The convective organization of Enrique continues to wane with the remaining thunderstorm activity located well to the north of the center. A couple of recent partial ASCAT passes showed winds to near 35-kt, so Enrique remains a tropical storm for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves over cool water and in an environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear. Enrique is forecast to become a remnant low within a day or so. The initial motion estimate is 295/6. A slow west-northwestward motion should continue for another 24 hours, before steering currents weaken and the cyclone turns westward and slows down. Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward, then southward in a few days. The latest NHC track is close to the previous advisory and the GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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