je.st
news
Tag: bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-08-05 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 051433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) X(39) X(39) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-08-05 16:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.1N 69.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.0N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-05 11:14:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 08:39:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 09:07:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-08-05 10:59:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050859 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Bertha's winds have decreased below hurricane strength, which is logical given that little deep convection now exists near the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which could generous given that only 45-kt surface winds have been reported thus far. However, the recon aircraft has not yet completed its entire mission, so I do not want to bring the intensity too quickly in the event stronger winds are found east of the center and/or deep convection redevelops. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 015/19 kt. Bertha briefly accelerated to about 21-22 kt after losing its deep convection a few hours ago, but recon fix data suggests that the cyclone's motion has settled down to around 19 kt now. Overall, the official track forecast and philosophy remains basically unchanged. The NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Bertha continuing its northeastward trek around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then accelerate eastward after getting caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies by 36-48 hours. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly west of the previous advisory track to account for the more westward initial position, and closely follows the consensus model TVCA. Bertha is forecast to experience increasing vertical wind shear over the next two days, with the shear reaching 50 kt or more by 24-36 hours. The combination of the strong shear and decreasing SSTs should induce steady weakening and cause extratropical transition by 36 hours or so. However, not as much weakening is expected with such strong shear conditions due to the expected infusion of baroclinic energy associated with a strong mid-latitude trough that is forecast to capture Bertha by 48 hours, which will help maintain the cyclone's intensity. The intensity forecast during the extratropical phase closely follows input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 33.4N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.9N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 38.6N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 44.1N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 48.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 49.3N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 50.3N 14.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-05 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERTHA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 the center of BERTHA was located near 33.4, -72.9 with movement NNE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
bertha
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] next »