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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 18
2014-08-05 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERTHA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 72.9W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-08-05 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050836 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 72.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 72.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.9N 70.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.6N 66.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.1N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 48.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 49.3N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 50.3N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-05 05:14:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 02:41:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 03:07:48 GMT
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Hurricane BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-08-05 04:40:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050240 TCDAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 Bertha certainly does not look like a typical hurricane in satellite imagery this evening. The center has become partially exposed to the northwest of the deep convection. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that recently investigated the cyclone observed flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde winds that all supported hurricane intensity late this afternoon. Since that time, the organization has degraded a little and it is possible that Bertha has weakened below hurricane strength. However, new convection has recently formed just east of the center near where the strongest winds were measured earlier. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. This could be generous, but it is best to maintain hurricane status until the the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft examines the storm around 0600 UTC. Bertha is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two while it moves into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over decreasing sea surface temperatures. On Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough and Bertha is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic shortly thereafter. Fixes from the aircraft show that Bertha is moving a little faster and has turned north-northeastward this evening. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Bertha is expected to accelerate northeastward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough moving off the northeast United States coast. After Bertha becomes a post-tropical cyclone in 48 to 72 hours, it is forecast to turn east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the north Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 36.6N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.3N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 42.1N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 47.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 48.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 49.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-05 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 the center of BERTHA was located near 31.3, -73.1 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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