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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-05 23:14:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 20:47:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 21:07:48 GMT
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bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-08-05 22:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052044 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Deep convection redeveloped over the center earlier today, but that convection was subsequently sheared off to the east-northeast. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago indicated that, although Bertha still had a well-defined surface circulation, the maximum winds were no more than 45 kt, Based on this, and a Dvorak classification of T3.0 from TAFB, the advisory intensity is set at 45 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated that there were no winds to tropical storm force over the western semicircle of the circulation. The SHIPS model predicts that west-southwesterly shear will increase greatly over the next day or two, and these conditions could cause more weakening than indicated by the official forecast. However, it is possible that the system may maintain more of its intensity by extracting energy from baroclinic processes associated with the frontal system just to its north. In any event, global models show the system becoming embedded within the frontal zone within 36 hours, so the official forecast indicates that the transition to a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone will be complete by that time. Bertha's heading is gradually shifting to the right and the motion is now 030/18 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy. Over the next couple of days, the tropical, or post-tropical, cyclone should turn toward the northeast and accelerate ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough moving off the northeast United States coast. Later in the forecast period, the system should move swiftly east-northeastward to eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the North Atlantic. The track and wind radii forecast for 36 hours and beyond have been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 36.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 38.2N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 41.0N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 43.7N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 48.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 49.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 51.0N 1.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-05 22:43:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 the center of BERTHA was located near 36.2, -70.3 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 20
2014-08-05 22:43:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052043 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...BERTHA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 70.3W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BERTHA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-08-05 22:43:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 052043 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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