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Tropical Depression Ignacio Graphics
2021-08-03 10:48:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 08:48:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 09:28:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030847 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Strong east-northeasterly shear has continued to take a toll on Ignacio overnight with a small cluster of remaining deep convection now displaced over 60 n mi to the southwest of the center. An ASCAT overpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory indicates that Ignacio has weakened to a tropical depression with peak winds of around 30 kt. That is also supported by a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The strong shear and marginal SSTs should continue to cause gradual weakening over the next 12-24 hours, and Ignacio is expected to become a remnant low Tuesday night. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show the remnant low opening up into a trough of low pressure shortly thereafter, and so does the official forecast. Ignacio is moving slower toward the northwest than before, or about 315/5 kt. A further reduction in forward speed is predicted over the next 12-24 hours as Ignacio weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The track guidance again suggests that the remnant low will turn northeastward before dissipating, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Ignacio was located near 20.1, -116.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 030847 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 116.3W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is forecast today, followed by slow northeastward or eastward motion Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030847 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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